Friday, June 12, 2009

22 games vs. 22 opponents or 11 opponents

Cribbage World recently posed the question about preference on this front, but did not state that one was fairer than the other.

Clearly playing against 22 different opponents is fairer, because the odds of getting a bad draw (matched up against top opponents) is lower. If there are 11 good players and 11 bad players, I have to play them all if it's one game vs. 1 opponent, but I could get all 11 good players if it's 2 games vs. one opponent.

I think all tournaments, for optimal "fairness", should be 22 games vs. 1 opponent, alternate deal. It also promotes socialization, and cribbage, is of course a social game.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

ACC Internet Cribbage

The American Cribbage Congress (ACC) has an internet cribbage division. In theory it's a great idea. You can imagine it as a way to expand the membership base and reach people who know and play cribbage, where they are playing, who may not know specifically about the ACC. There's also the potential appeal of a different demographic the ACC would benefit from.

However, the ACC's current internet implimentation falls short on a number of fronts in my opinion. First and foremost is the ability to find it. The ACC plays on Game Colony, and the ACC had a special "hidden" room built just for them, that you can only get to from the ACC website. So now the idea is open to only a handful.

From there, they set a very narrow schedule (which is obviously resource constrained) with a huge of number of tournaments that count towards winning, which means almost no one can achieve the number, meaning the winners are simply who play the most. I realize it's difficult to schedule for all coasts, but there's an odd balanace between admitting it's hard to make tournaments and a large number needed to be competitive.

Finally, the site itself, Game Colony, is quite unrealistic for cribbage. The cut card is just histerical sometimes. It seems to me that every other game ends in a skunk.

The ACC has a very nice concept on its hands, and with a small number of key improvements, I think the program could grow nicely.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Favorite Pone Pegging Hand

2-3-4-6.

I will usually lead the 2, because I will score points on any card except an 8, 5 or 2 play. (If I lead the 3 I miss scoring on a 9, 7 or 3, so it's pretty break even.)

And then very often, you will make it 15-2 with the 2-3 combo, and it does not look at all like you have a 6 left, so you will get 4 pegging points.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Grass Roots Season Recap

I had my best Grass Roots season ever this year. Grass Roots is the local club division of the ACC. There are some 200+ clubs around the country that meet local up to 36 times a season. You play 9 games of cribbage and anyone who ends up with 12 or more points in a night collects Grass Roots points. You get two points for a win and three points for a skunk. I play in Club #54 in Antioch, CA.

This was the first season I played all 36 weeks. I finished with 297 points, scoring points in 20 of 36 weeks, including a silly stretch in the middle of the season where I scored in 13 out of 17 weeks. I won 61% of my games. I ended up edging out Tad Pilecki for the club championship, my second in a row. Tad finished with 242 points, which would have won the club last year.

The Grass Roots data isn't final yet, but it appears I may have made the unofficial All-American team (the ACC honors it's weekend tournament top 10 with this honor, but not the local club level). The standings as today look at follows:

1. Elmer Rassmussen 333
2. Tom Cookman 324
3. Albert Miller 321
4. Craig Jensen 306
5. Erik Locke 299
5. Jim Blough 299
7. Clyde Ross 298
8. Paul Gregson 297
9. Pamela Pomeroy 296
9. Joe Lilly 296

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Do I Believe in the "26 Theory?"

The 26 theory states that over 2 hands, a deal and a non-deal, on average, you will get 26 points. Based on that, you should know where you are relative to winning at all points in the game.

I do follow the 26-theory, and I know the hole positions, but I actually think the exact number is different for each player, based on the style of cribbage they play. I think I'm pretty agressive, so for me it might be the 27 or 28 theory, but I've never kept enough data to figure it out. I should keep track of how many deals I play my games in some time. Maybe I'll do that next Grass Roots season.

"The Right Play" Early in a Game

It makes me chuckle when I read books, like DeLynn Colvert's "Play Winning Cribbage" (great book btw), because they state emphatically that a defensive play is best to start when you are the dealer, because on average that's the right play.

In golf, if the odds of hitting a ball in the water are 80%, do you putt the entire hole? (probably a bad analogy) But what I'm trying to say is that each game individually isn't "the average play". How many times have you played the first hand defensively and then gotten to the end of the game and lost by 2 points? Probably as many times as you've gotten to the end of a game and thought, wow, glad I played that first hand defensively.

The problem with the logic is that a defensive play in the first hand is optimal assuming the rest of the game is average, but the odds of that happening are very low. You can't state in the first hand of the game what an optimal strategy is for winning the game. You can however, say which strategy gets you a bigger lead, which I think is more important to winning.

The classic example here is the 5-6 as the dealer. Do you play the 5 or the 6 on a 10 lead? I always play the 5. Why? Two reasons. First, you never know if the game is to be an average game or not on the first hand, so it's too early to think about that. And then second, my odds are better of being farther in the lead playing the 5. What do I mean? I play the 5, that gives me 2 points, then let's say it's 50/50 if my opponent plays a 5 back, in which case I likely play a 10-card for a 3-2 edge. If it's 50-50 he plays another 10-card, then I'm up 4-0 with my 6. So I figure there's a 50-50 change I'm up 1 or 4, which means on average I'm up 2.5 points by playing the 5. Doing the 5-6 way would give me a 2 point lead. So because I don't know if it's an average game or not, I pair the 5. There's probably some real odds of having a 5 and a face card, but I'm lazy, I assumed it's 50/50. But lazy is ok here, because it's the right play until the expected value drops below 2, which is what you get the other way. 1*.67 + 4*.33 = 2, so unless the odds of my opponent having a 5 are more than 67% I'm making the right play.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Playing the Odds

I'm a numbers guy, through-and-through. I did my undergrad at Cornell, and there I majored in Operations Research & Industrial Engineering. Translation - fancy math like Statistics & Probability theory.

Most of my advice is about playing the odds. The odds of getting certain cards, the odds of getting a certain amount of points, the odds of your opponent having a card, and most importantly your odds of winning the game.

As an example, let's say I'm 8 points from winning the game, with first count. My opponent is 20 out. I'm dealt 3-4-5-6-9-J. What am I keeping? 3-4-5-6, every time. Why? Because no matter what card is cut I have to have 8 points, garaunteeing the win. Any other discard risks losing the game.

Knowing the maximium minimum is often very important at the end of the game. The combination of cards that, if you get the worst cut possible, gives you the most points.

Cribbage 101

I'm not going to reprint the rulebook: Rules of Cribbage. There's a printable version as well.

Another useful thing to know is the lingo. The ACC website has a nice glossary of terms.

One particular definition of note:
Pegging Out - the act of moving your peg into the Game Hole (the 121st) and winning the game. While not absolutely required to claim a game win, it is highly recommended by most tournament directors and Judges.

My Cribbage Resume

For some reason it seems that typing about my cribbage exploits will lend credence to the ramblings I post later.

I was born on January 21, 1977. I only mention this because it's 1-21. And in cribbage 121 is the number of points needed to win a game.

As I mentioned, I joined the American Cribbage Congress (ACC) in 2000. In the 9 years since I've played in all 3 of the ACCs different divisions.

The ACC has a Grass Roots program. Players play at local clubs around the country in a 36-week season. I've racked up 1,626 Grass Roots points (GRPs) in 9 years. Lifetime that ranks me roughly as the #600 player. I've won my club 3 of the 9 years, once in Fremont, CA and the last two years in Antioch, CA. This year I racked up 297 GRPs, placing me, I think (the final numbers have not been tabulated), in the top 20 in the country. My goal is to become the #1 ranked player all-time in this division. That will take the better part of the next 50 years, but I think I can do it.

The ACC also conducts weekend tournaments, for which is awards Master points. I played a lot on the weekends the first few years I was in the ACC, but then life (kids) happened, and I don't play very much. I've racked up 1,504 lifetime MRPs, which is good for about #850 on the all-time list.

And then I've played in the ACC's Internet division a bit too. I'm in the top 100 or so lifetime, under the screen name cornellbigred99, with a little over 600 Internet Rating Points (IRPs).

The other interesting thing of note is that I was actually the webmaster for the American Cribbage Congress from 2001-2004. I gave the site the design it still has today (which needs updating I admit) so I will reference it a lot.

Welcome to Pegging Out

Why did I decide to write a blog? And why about the grand old game of cribbage? Because I love the game, and I want to give back. But I want to give back in a way that I'm in control of. Without bureacracy and red tape. I'll explain that more some time.

Who am I? My name is Paul Gregson. I'm 32. I was born outside London, and cribbage, as you may know, began in England. My parents taught me how to play when I was a kid. I played online almost exclusively for years, until 2000, when I stumbled onto the American Cribbage Congress website. I joined a local club, and the rest, as they say, is history.

I hope this blog will prove to be a good mix of strategy and anecdotes, to entertain and educate.